Postscript: Will the US Shatter NATO? And Will Europe Discipline the US?

(Unfinished)

William Greider in The Nation (9/23/02) has observed how Germany and Japan are propping up America in the role of world leader, while "gaining a greater share of markets under the shadow of US hegemony."

"Their reluctance [to challenge America] resembles the American attitude early in the last century, when it was the ascendant economic power but did not wish to become a `Great Power' itself, with responsibility for maintaining world order. Instead, the United States propped up Britain for many years as the failing empire sank into unsustainable debt. British power was fundamentally eclipsed in 1914, but the United States provided the financial nurture to keep it upright, as a kind of dummy leader in world affairs, until after World War II. Washington decisively pulled the plug in 1956, when Britain (along with France and Israel) invaded Egypt to capture the nationalized Suez Canal. It was the last gasp of British colonialism, and Washington disapproved. By withholding an IMF loan to London, the United States crashed the pound, forced Britain to withdraw from war and its prime minister to resign in disgrace. The Brits were finally relieved of their delusions.

"It is most unlikely, of course, that the US drama will play out in a similar way--we are far too big and powerful by comparison--but Britain's humiliation might serve as a cautionary tale for power-drunk American statesmen. Other nations, when they feel their global market power is sufficiently stronger and we have become still weaker, might organize a transition of gradual adjustments that allows the United States to climb down gracefully from its long-held role. This would be very difficult to accomplish, however, without a real blow to the US standard of living, not to mention national pride.

"More likely, the United States and the global system are going to encounter harsh bumps and ugly surprises."

It can be objected that Europe is still far too divided to impose on America the kind of economic discipline which America forced in 1956 on Britain. Indeed an immediate consequence of forcing the Iraq war plans on NATO has been to threaten European unity, and isolate Germany and France from other more pliant NATO members who are willing to get on board the Iraq bandwagon.

As the BBC reported early on 2/10/03,

"One or more [NATO] members strongly opposed to war with Iraq appear almost certain to block a US request to beef-up fellow member Turkey's defences.

"Under the alliance's `silent procedure' the request will go through if no"member formally objects by Monday's deadline of 0900 GMT [2/10/03]- but Belgium has said it will use its veto, possibly with French support.

"Top US officials have said that such a move would be `shameful' and `inexcusable'.

"The BBC's correspondent in Brussels, Stephen Sackur, says that the rift between the US and what Mr Rumsfeld has called `old Europe' threatens to do lasting damage to Nato solidarity."

One of the foreign policy achievements of the Clinton Administration was to avoid, or at least postpone, any major political confrontations with an increasingly independent Europe. It looks increasingly as if the Bush plans for invasion, whether implemented or not, risk leaving US-NATO unity in a shambles. As the Washington Post reported on 2/10/03, US-German disagreements over Iraq had led to an exchange "about as coarse as U.S.-German government discourse has been since World War II. Rumsfeld has irritated the Germans with recent remarks that lumped them in with Libya and Cuba because of their opposition to war."

It may be that Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Wolfowitz see no real need for NATO in their new American century, and believe that they can secure the compliance of France, Russia and China by threatening their existing oil contracts in Iraq. But if Washington continues to ignore and offend European opinions of a reasonable Iraq policy, there may be more and more chance that France, Germany, Russia and China could ultimately unite to express their misgivings about the dollar, by unloading some of their own.